Both are grammatical. It in the first sentence is sometimes called a ‘dummy’ it, because it doesn’t have an antecedent. It’s just there so that is can have a subject.
There isn’t much difference in meaning between the two, but they are rather artificial sentences, and, at least in conversation, a native speaker probably wouldn’t say either. More likely would be ‘Looks like the weather’s gonna change’ or ‘Don’t think this weather’s gonna last long.’
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